According to Bureau of Labor Statistics figures reprinted in a Technology & Learning article, the number of skilled jobs in the United States has risen dramatically during the past 50 years. In 1950, skilled labor — defined by the article as a job requiring "more specialized training than a high school diploma, but not necessarily a four-year college degree" — accounted for 20% of the workforce. By 2000, that number was 65%.

These figures don't surprise Dr. Marvin Cetron. He is more concerned about the lack of attention being paid to vocational training in the K-12 environment. Dr. Cetron, founder of Forecasting International, spoke recently to galeschools.com about the state of vocational education.

Q: How does today's vocational education differ from the past?

A: Lots of people probably still think of voc-ed as a bunch of high school boys tinkering on an old car, or girls sewing and cooking in home ec. That was the reality 25 years ago, but the high-tech age has changed everything. Today, almost every new car has a computer built in. The rule is "don't touch until you read the diagnostics." Our students aren't getting that kind of training.

Q: But students work with computers all the time.

A: They run programs and applications, but they don't know how the technology works. We need computer repairers, not just programmers.

And we're not just talking about cars and computers. If you've ever tried to find a skilled carpenter, mason or electrician, he or she is probably someone older, not younger, because kids don't have enough access to that training. What happens when that older generation retires?

Our health care system is also in need of paraprofessionals — specialists in rehabilitation and various nursing fields — but again, there isn't ample training for those certified, but nonprofessional, occupations.

Q: So there's a gap in the workplace?

A: Not just in terms of number, but in terms of performance. A lot of corporations feel strongly that the people coming to work are not qualified to do the job well.

Q: What kind of specific performance gaps exist?

A: I'll use an automotive example: For many years, the perception was that German or Japanese cars were made to a higher standard than American cars. Today, nearly all cars are made by robots — so they're nearly all identical in initial quality. However, American cars still don't work as well. The reason? The people who work in German and Japanese plants are better educated in the system. They have the equivalent of a two-year education after high school in math, computers and statistics. This gives them a better quantitative education, at a higher level. So when they fix a car, it's a better job.

Some U.S. schools are taking a cue from the European and Japanese models. In Oklahoma there's an association with American Airlines. Students work on actual airplane engines, diagnosing and rebuilding them. The students are getting an education in a field that pays well. The schools find that delicate balance between academic rigor and practical training.

Q: What's the immediate need?

A: We need more computer science, more statistics, more math included in vocational education. There should be more academics in general included in the voc ed courses. Most of all, we need teachers who are qualified to teach vocational programs.

Q: How can educators help?

A: Understanding your students' goals is key. If you have a Spanish-speaking population, you can find career training in Spanish.

Lifelong learning for teachers and library professionals is crucial: The time between "idea" and "invention" has gone from 30 years in 1950 to seven years today.

Q: What's in it for students?

A: In terms of starting your career, vocational training can provide a head start. It typically takes eight years for a liberal-arts college graduate to match the take-home pay of someone who has trained in vocational high tech. Between not putting out money for college, and making money right out of high school, the vocational student breaks even much quicker. Most people don't fully understand the difference.

Q: Ironic, because it seems the mantra most kids hear is, "get that college degree!"

A: Maybe we should change it to "get that training" — whether through college or through vocational education.

Dr. Marvin J. Cetron, founder of Forecasting International, is one of the world's most recognized forecaster-futurists. He has served as a White House advisor in every administration, Republican and Democrat, from 1960-2000. Dr. Cetron is also a frequent guest on television shows including "Today," "Good Morning America," "Crossfire" and many more. He is the author of three dozen books, plus numerous articles for periodicals.