Don't Write Off America's Engineering Talent Yet

The headlines in U.S. news sources sound dire: " While China and India churn out more engineers and scientists," says a San Antonio Express-News article this month, "American students are losing interest in those fields, and schools are experiencing a severe shortage of qualified teachers."

"Almost every trend you look at is going in the wrong direction," noted Norman Augustine, retired chairman and CEO of the Lockheed Martin Corporation. Augustine told the annual conference of The Academy of Medicine, Engineering and Science of Texas that "global leadership ... is not an American birthright."

But how accurate are those forecasts? Recently Duke University released a study, "Framing the Engineering Outsourcing Debate: Placing the United States on a Level Playing Field with China and India." Instead of confirming the accepted view of the United States as lagging in the sciences, the Duke study instead reveals some intriguing new perspectives.

For one, the widely quoted numbers comparing new American engineering graduates with counterparts in India and China are skewed. For example, articles cited in the Duke report show the United States graduating about 70,000 undergraduate engieers in 2004, while China graduated 600,000 and India 350,000. But as the Duke researchers noted, "Our study has determined that the above comparison is inaccurate, or tells only part of the story."

Apples and oranges?

The Duke study suggests that the comparisons include not only four-year degrees but also three-year degrees and diploma holders. "Additionally," the report notes, "these numbers include not only engineers in traditional engineering disciplines, but information technology specialists and technicians." In other words, the looser definition of engineering in China and India has created an apples-vs.-oranges comparison to engineering students in the United States.

"Then there is the statistical faux pas of not placing the graduate numbers into the larger context of each country's demographics," as World Energy Monthly Review noted. "China has roughly four times the population of the United States, and India is approximately three times as large. With those numbers factored in, the United States actually produces more bacherlor's-degreed engineers per million citizens (468.3) than do China (271.1) and India (103.7) combined."

"Because India and China have greater numbers, we think we have to have greater numbers too. But we'll never match them in numbers," Vivek Wadhwa, a coauthor of the Duke study , was quoted in the Los Angeles Times. "We can't compete on their turf, which is quantity," Wadhwa said. "We need to make them compete on our turf, which is quality. Yes, they have more numbers. Of course they do. Between them they have 2 1/2 billion people. Yes, they graduate more engineers. They graduate more dentists, and they have more shopkeepers too."